Boeing: to 2039 the fleet of civil airplanes will reach 48400 units. Part 1

Boeing company published annual forecast of the market of civil and military aerospace industry that reflects negative influence of COVID-19 pandemic. Forecast includes estimation of short-term, medium-term and long-term dynamic of the market. According to the market forecast of Boeing company (Boeing Market Outlook 2020), civil aviation and services will continue to experience serious difficulties because of pandemic while government order and military aviation industry maintains stability.

Boeing chief strategy officer Marc Allen underlined: “Though this year was unprecedented from the point of view destabilization of our industry, we consider that aviation and defense industry will overcome these short-term problems and will achieve stability again and as result will become even stronger”.

According to Boeing forecast total volume of the market of products and services in aerospace industry will make 8,5 trillion USD in the nearest 10 years. Taking into consideration influence of COVID-19 pandemic estimated figure in the new report has reduced compared to the forecast of 2019 from 8,7 trillion USD to current values. Airline companies in entire world began recovery after reduction of passenger flow and profits more than by 90% at the beginning of current year but for full recovery according to the forecast will be necessary years.

According to the market forecast of Boeing company (Boeing Market Outlook 2020) in the next decade the industry will need 18350 civil airplanes the cost of which is estimated in 2,9 trillion USD. It is by 11% less than rates of similar period of 2019. In more long-term perspective it is forecasted that the key drivers of industry development will restore and will resume the tendency of growth of the civil airplanes’ fleet. According to the data of Boeing analysts in 20 years will appear demand for more than 43000 new airplanes.

Besides, according to the Boeing Market Outlook 2020 forecast product and services demand in the space and defense market segments may reach 2,6 trillion USD in the nearest decade. This forecast reflects enduring importance of military airplanes, autonomic systems, satellites, space vehicles and other products for government needs. According to the forecast, 40% of such expenses will fall to the countries outside USA, 60% – to USA.