Boeing: to 2039 the fleet of civil airplanes will reach 48400 units. Part 3
According to new forecast of the civil aviation market from Boeing during 20 years in the world is forecasted growth of passenger flow in average by 4%. It is expected that to 2039 fleet of civil airplanes will reach 48400 units. For comparison for today in the world are operated 25900 airplanes. During this period Asia continues to increase its per cent in number of airplanes in the fleet of local airline companies and lease companies. At present moment share of Asia makes about 30%, it is forecasted that this index will increase almost to 40%.
Narrow-body airplanes will still remain the biggest market segment. According to forecasts operators will need 32270 new narrow-body airplanes in the nearest 20 years. Demand on them will restore faster thanks to the fact that airplanes are used on short-haul routes and on local market.
On the market of wide-body airplanes Boeing forecasts demand in 7480 new passenger airplanes in the period up to 2039. Demand on wide-body airplanes will be under influence of lower recovery of long-haul routes. In the terms of crises long-haul international routes always restore slower than internal or regional flights. Uncertainty caused by COVID-19 spreading and borders’ opening and closure has also influence.
Forecast for cargo air transport looks relatively favorably in 2020. Annual demand increase by 4% is expected. This will create demand in 930 new wide-body cargo airplanes and 1500 re-equipped cargo airplanes during 20 years.
Fleet of the airplanes in operation will continue generating demand on services, including replacement parts and delivery system, engineering, modifications and maintenance, pilots’ training and also digital solutions and analytics. Service market in civil aviation is estimated in the new Boeing forecast in amount of 1,6 billion USD and service on state orders – in 1,4 trillion USD.